Bears and Wildcats meet in Big 12 Tournament semifinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ninth-ranked Kansas State Wildcats and the 21st-ranked Baylor Bears are slated to collide in the semifinal round of the 2010 Big 12 Tournament from the Sprint Center in Kansas City.

Awaiting the winner of this contest is a matchup with either top-seeded Kansas or fourth-seeded Texas A&M in Saturday's championship game.

Second-seeded Baylor was dominant in yesterday's 86-67 quarterfinal romp over sixth-seeded Texas. Now, the goal is obvious, as the program has never won the Big 12 Tournament and is 9-12 all-time in the event. Scott Drew has done a phenomenal job of resurrecting a program that was in peril when he arrived, and the 2009-10 Bears own a 25-6 overall record. They carry a four-game win streak into tonight's affair.

As for Kansas State, the tournament's second seed, it crushed Oklahoma State by an 83-64 final in yesterday's quarterfinal round. The program has never won the Big 12 Tournament and is 8-13 all-time in games at the event. This year's group of Wildcats is a serious threat to capture the crown, however, as the club entered the tournament with a 24-6 overall record, including 11-5 in league action.

The Wildcats holds a slim 11-10 series advantage over Baylor after a thrilling 74-72 victory over the Bears during the regular season.

Baylor forward Ekpe Udoh is sometimes overshadowed by his teammates, but the forward has been a key to the team's success all season. He stepped to the forefront against Texas yesterday, shooting 9-of-14 from the floor en route to 25 points. Tweety Carter added 20 points for the Bears, who received 19 points from LaceDarius Dunn. Baylor connected on 53.6 percent of its field goal attempts in that clash and limited the Longhorns to 36.4 percent efficiency. Through 31 games, the Bears are scoring 77.7 ppg while allowing only 65.4 ppg on 38.1 percent shooting by foes. They are outrebounding foes by 6.9 rpg and are paced by Dunn's 19.2 ppg. Carter is generating 16.0 ppg to go along with an impressive total of 167 assists, and Udoh brings 13.8 ppg, 9.7 rpg and 124 blocks to the mix.

Kansas State was dominant in the first half against Oklahoma State yesterday, as the Wildcats shot 53.1 percent from the floor and limited the Cowboys to 33.3 percent efficiency en route to a 25-point halftime lead. For the game, K-State finished with a 43-27 rebounding advantage and racked up 20 assists. Jamar Samuels was outstanding, as he racked up 27 points and 10 rebounds off the bench in 27 minutes of action. Jacob Pullen scored 19 points on the strength of a 5-of-8 effort from three-point range, and Denis Clemente added 12 points and 10 assists. Dominique Sutton rounded out a foursome of double- digit scorers with 11 points for Kansas State, which is posting 80.2 ppg while limiting opponents to 69.2 ppg this season. Pullen continues to pace his squad with 18.9 ppg, and Clemente adds 15.9 ppg and 128 assists. Samuels contributes 12.0 ppg, and Curtis Kelly adds 11.3 ppg. The Wildcats are outrebounding opponents by 5.6 rpg, key to their success.

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MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.

Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.

According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).

Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.

''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
    
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.

Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.

''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''

Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
   
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.

”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
   
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.