Big Brown heavy favorite for Preakness

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/14/2008 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown is the prohibitive 1-2 favorite for Saturday's 133rd Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The colt will face 12 other three-year-olds in the $1 million, 1 3/16 mile race.

Post-time for the Preakness Stakes is 6:15 p.m. (et) and will be televised on NBC.

Owned by IEAH Stables and Paul Pompa Jr., Big Brown is undefeated in four career starts, having won the races by a total of nearly 34 lengths. For Saturday the three-year-old will again be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and the pair will start from post seven. Desormeaux won the 1998 Preakness aboard Real Quiet.

Big Brown, trained by Maryland-native Rick Dutrow, Jr., has earned $2,076,700 this year and better than $2.1 million overall. Prior to his commanding Kentucky Derby victory he went wire to wire to win the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

A victory on Saturday would put Big Brown just one win, the Belmont Stakes, away from becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner and the first since Affirmed in 1978.

Arkansas Derby champ Gayego is the only other Kentucky Derby horse to be entered in the second leg of racing's Triple Crown. The colt failed to fire two weeks ago and finished 17th in the 20 horse field.

Gayego, owned by Cubanacan Stables and trained by Paulo Lobo, is 8-1 in the morning-line and will start from post 12 with jockey Mike Smith. Smith was aboard Prairie Bayou when the colt won the 1993 Preakness Stakes.

Gayego began 2008 by winning the San Pedro Stakes and then finished second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes. In his career he has won three of six starts for $723,420.

Hey Byrn is the only starter to have a win at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles. He accomplished that by winning the Holy Bull Stakes in his last start. For Saturday Hey Byrn is 20-1 in the morning-line and will be ridden by C.C. Lopez from the far outside post.

Owned by Beatrice Oxenberg and trained by Eddie Plesa, Hey Byrn was a distant fourth to Big Brown in the Florida Derby. The colt has won four of eight career starts for $266,000.

Derby Trial winner Macho Again is 20-1 in the program with Julien Leparoux set to ride from the inside post. Dallas Stewart trains for West Point Thoroughbreds.

Macho Again was sixth in the Lecomte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January and was seventh to Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes. The colt has won three of eight lifetime starts for $143,761.

The late running Yankee Bravo may benefit from a fast pace on Saturday. Trained by Paddy Gallagher, Yankee Bravo is 15-1 in the morning-line and has drawn post four and will be ridden by Alex Solis. The veteran jockey guided Snow Chief to victory in the 1986 Preakness.

Yankee Bravo won the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields in his first start of the year. He then was third to Pyro in the Louisiana Derby and fourth in the Santa Anita Derby to Colonel John. The colt has earned $247,052 with three wins in five lifetime starts.

Expected to be at or near the lead in the Preakness is Beau Greely's Tres Borrachos. The gelding, 30-1 in the program, will break from post two with Tyler Baze in the saddle.

Tres Borrachos set the early pace in the Arkansas Derby and El Camino Real Derby, his last two starts where he finished third both times. He began 2008 with a fourth place result in the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

Co-owned and trained by Greely, Tres Borrachos has won once in a seven race career with earnings of $159,200.

Lexington Stakes winner Behindatthebar is 10-1 in the morning-line and will start from post five with rider David Flores. The colt is owned by Padua Stable, Michael Shustek, and W. Don Stanley, and trained by Todd Pletcher who is looking for his first Preakness victory.

Behindatthebar has won his last two starts after finishing fifth in the El Camino Real. He has earned $277,100 with three wins in five starts, all this year.

Giant Moon will be making his first start away from New York on Saturday. The New York-bred colt is 30-1 in the program and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez from post 11.

Trained by Richard Schosberg for Albert Fried, Jr., Giant Moon is coming off a fourth place finish in the Wood Memorial. He was ninth in the Gotham Stakes following his season opening win in the Count Fleet Stakes.

Giant Moon won all three starts as a two-year-old and has career earnings of $223,535.

Icabad Crane is the only Preakness starter with a race over the Pimlico surface. He won the Federico Tesio Stakes last month to stamp his ticket for Saturday.

Owned by Earle Mack, Icabad Crane is 30-1 in the morning-line and will start from post three with Jeremy Rose again in the saddle. Rose guided Afleet Alex to a memorable win in the 2005 Preakness Stakes.

Icabad Crane is trained by Graham Motion and is the winner of three of four career races for $125,400.

The always dangerous Riley Tucker will break from post 10 with Edgar Prado riding. The colt is 30-1 in the program for owner Zayat Stables and trainer Bill Mott.

Riley Tucker is coming off a third place finish in the Lexington Stakes after being the runner-up in the Transylvania Stakes, both at Keeneland. He began the year in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn where he was sixth, the only time he was out of the money.

He has earned $161,100 in seven lifetime starts with one win, three seconds and two thirds.

Owner Robert LaPenta and trainer Nick Zito have entered Stevil as their representative in this year's Preakness. Zito won the 1996 Preakness with Louis Quatorze.

Stevil is 30-1 in the program and will be ridden by John Velazquez from post nine. The colt has just one win in six career starts for $95,865. This year he was fourth in the Blue Grass Stakes and fifth in the Louisiana Derby.

Jockey Robby Albarado goes after his second straight Preakness victory with Racecar Rhapsody. Albarado won the 2007 race with eventual Horse of the Year Curlin. Racecar Rhapsody is 30-1 in the morning-line and will start from post six.

Trained by Ken McPeek, Racecar Rhapsody has finished fourth in his last three starts which include the Lexington, Lane's End Stakes and Delta Downs Jackpot. He has one win in six lifetime races for $148,391.

Lightly raced Kentucky Bear is 15-1 in the morning-line and will start from post eight with jockey Jamie Theriot. Owned by Bear Stables, Kentucky Bear will be making only his fourth career start on Saturday with one win and a third place finish.

The chestnut colt is trained by Reade Baker and is coming off a solid third place finish behind Monba in the Blue Grass Stakes. He was seventh in the Fountain of Youth Stakes after winning his first career start in January. He has $100,200 in winnings.

Here the entire field for the Preakness Stakes in post position order: Macho Again 20-1 Julien Leparoux; Tres Borrachos 30-1 Tyler Baze; Icabad Crane 30-1 Jeremy Rose; Yankee Bravo 15-1 Alex Solis; Behindatthebar 10-1 David Flores; Racecar Rhapsody 30-1 Robby Albarado; Big Brown 1-2 Kent Desormeaux; Kentucky Bear 15-1 Jamie Theriot; Stevil 30-1 John Velazquez; Riley Tucker 30-1 Edgar Prado; Giant Moon 30-1 Ramon Dominguez; Gayego 8-1 Mike Smith; Hey Byrn 20-1 C.C. Lopez.

The weather forecast for Saturday calls for partly cloudy conditions and a post-time temperature near 70.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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