Preakness Stakes is Big Brown's to lose

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/14/2008 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming out of the Kentucky Derby, it appeared that this year's Preakness Stakes could be a walk-over for Big Brown. He proved that post position is no deterent to him when he easily went from post 20 in the Run for the Roses to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs.

Big Brown has won his four career starts by almost 34 lengths, the Kentucky Derby win was by the smallest margin of 4 3/4 lengths. While speed is the name of his game, the colt showed in the Run for the Roses that he doesn't need the lead early to win the race.

"If we draw the outside, it would make me very happy, but we don't have a choice, so we're going to take what comes," said trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. "I'm pretty confident things are going to be okay with him come Saturday."

The Preakness has special meaning for Maryland-native Dutrow. His father Dick was one of the top trainers in Maryland in the 1960's and 70's.

"Every time Preakness would roll around, dad would win a race on Preakness day," said Dutrow. "Naturally I would love to win a race like that. It's where I grew up. Most of the traits of the game are right there at Pimlico, Bowie, Laurel. I'm going to see a lot of my friends. I can't wait to get there."

A total of 12 three-year-olds will challenge Big Brown in the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown. Several are speed horses, including Arkansas Derby champ Gayego.

The lone local winner is Icabad Crane who captured the Federico Tesio Stakes here in April. The winner of the Tesio normally gets extra support from the local horseplayers.

Icabad Crane has three wins in four lifetime starts. He likes to come from off the pace and will have Jeremy Rose in the irons. Rose was the winning jockey three years ago when Afleet Alex won the Preakness after nearly crashing to track coming into the stretch.

Gayego will be the only Kentucky Derby starter to run in the Preakness. It will be the sixth time since 1918, and the first since 1980, that just two Kentucky Derby runners will start in the Preakness Stakes.

Several of the starters are coming out of winning efforts in their last race. Behindatthebar captured the Lexington Stakes, Hey Byrn won the Holy Bull Stakes at the Preakness distance and Macho Again took the Derby Trial.

Racecar Rhapsody was fourth in both the Lexington and Lane's End Stakes. his only two starts this year.

"He's going to run his race," trainer Ken McPeek said. "We've just got to hope that Big Brown has got a hole in him someplace. We're coming with a horse that is ready. That's the biggest thing we can do."

Yankee Bravo finished third in the Louisiana Derby before a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.

Tres Borrachos is coming out of a third place finish behind Gayego in the Arkansas Derby.

"My thought coming into the Preakness is that he should like the tight turns and the sharp track. He's improved in every race," said trainer Beau Greely. "He ran a nice race in the Arkansas Derby. I liked the way he hung in there. His back form is good."

Giant Moon was fourth in the Wood Memorial, beaten two lengths by Tale of Ekati.

"The six weeks between the Wood and now I think will be good for him," observed trainer Richard Schosberg. "He's got to step it up. It's a whole different league of horses, but he represented himself well in the Wood."

Riley Tucker is coming out of a third place finish in the Lexington to Behindatthebar. He was second in the Transylania Stakes.

Stevil was fourth in his last effort in the Blue Grass Stakes. It was a tough trip for the colt trained by Nick Zito. Still, Stevil was beaten by just 2 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass.

Kentucky Bear was also in the Blue Grass where was third behind Monba and Cowboy Cal.

"I think he's at the top of his game," said jockey Jamie Theriot. "In the Blue Grass I think it was just a lack of experience coming down the lane with the crowd and everything. He kind of hung on that left lead. I think now he's mentally ready for this kind of race."

To make money in this year's Preakness Stakes trifecta wagers appear to be the way to go. Box Big Brown, Gayego, Icabad Crane, Hey Byrn, Yankee Bravo and Macho Again.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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